1.Examine Figure 1, the neutral (long-term average or normal) conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean from about Borneo in the western Pacific Ocean to the west coast of South America (greatly exaggerated in the vertical scale). The scene depicts the ocean surface with atmosphere above and a cross-section of the ocean below. Fair weather appears in the eastern tropical Pacific (near 80 degrees W) while the cloud diagram implies that [(fair)(stormy)] weather prevails in the western Pacific (near 120 degrees E). [ ]fair [ ]stormy 2.The large-scale motions in the atmosphere show a convection cell (convective loop). The bold dark arrows show that air is rising in the stormy weather area of the western Pacific and [(rising) (sinking)] in the eastern tropical Pacific. [ ]rising [ ]sinking 3.The bold black arrow along the ocean surface in the convective loop represents the trade winds and points in the direction toward which the prevailing winds are blowing in the equatorial region. As indicated by the arrows, winds during neutral (long-term average) conditions blow toward the [(east)(west)] along the equator. [ ]east [ ]west 4.The large white, open arrows provide surface ocean current information. The surface current arrows indicate that during neutral conditions, surface water flows towards the [(east)(west)] driven by the prevailing winds. [ ]east [ ]west 5.Colored areas on the top of the block diagram portion of the figure denote sea surface temperatures (SST) during neutral conditions. The red colored area in the western Pacific denotes the highest SST. These highest SST occur under [(considerable cloudiness)(clear skies)] in the tropical Pacific. This SST pattern is caused by relatively strong trade winds pushing sunwarmed surface water westward, as indicated by the direction of surface current arrows. [ ]considerable cloudiness [ ]clear skies 6.Strong trade winds also cause the warm surface waters to pile up in the western tropical Pacific so that the sea surface in the western Pacific is somewhat higher than in the eastern Pacific. Transport of surface waters to the west also causes the thermocline (the transition zone between warm surface water and cold deep water shown by the blue layer in the ocean side view) to be [(deeper)(shallower)] in the eastern tropical Pacific than in the western Pacific. [ ]deeper [ ]shallower 7.Warm surface water transported by the wind away from the South American coast is replaced by cold water rising from below in a process called upwelling. Upwelling of cold deep water results in relatively [(high)(low)] SST in the eastern Pacific compared to the western Pacific. [ ]high [ ]low 8.Cold surface water cools the air above it, which leads to increases in the surface air pressure. Warm surface water adds heat and water vapor to the atmosphere, lowering the surface air pressure. These air-sea interactions result in tropical surface air pressure being highest in the [(eastern)(western)] tropical Pacific. [ ]eastern [ ]western 9.Whenever air pressure changes over distance, a force will move air from where the pressure is relatively high to where pressure is relatively low. The trade winds blow from east to the west because from east to west the surface air pressure [(increases) (decreases)]. [ ]increases [ ]decreases 10.Rainfall in the tropical Pacific is also related to SST patterns. There are reasons for this relationship. The higher the SST, the greater the rate of evaporation of seawater and the more vigorous the atmospheric convection. Consequently, during neutral conditions, rainfall is greatest in the western tropical Pacific where SST are [(highest)(lowest)]. [ ]highest [ ]lowest Tropical Pacific During El Niño 11.Figure 2 shows atmospheric and oceanic conditions during El Niño. Compared to Figure 1 (neutral or long-term average conditions), the area of stormy weather during El Niño has moved [(eastward)(westward)]. While no two El Niño episodes are exactly alike, all of them exhibit most of the characteristics shown in the El Niño schematic of Figure 2. With the onset of El Niño, tropical surface air pressure patterns change. Compare El Niño conditions in the western and central tropical Pacific with the neutral conditions of Figure 1. During neutral conditions, surface air pressure in the central Pacific is higher (accompanied by fair weather) than to the west. During El Niño, the surface air pressure to the west is higher than in the central Pacific. This reversal in the atmospheric pressure pattern, called the Southern Oscillation, was first studied in an attempt to explain monsoon failure and drought in India. [ ]eastward [ ]westward 12.In response to changes in the air pressure pattern across the tropical Pacific, the trade winds weaken (and wind directions can reverse, especially in the western Pacific as shown by the bold dark arrows). No longer being pushed toward and piled up in the western Pacific, the warm surface water reverses flow direction. As shown by the surface currents arrows, the surface water during El Niño flows toward the east. As evident in the appropriate sea surface temperature shading, this causes SST in the eastern tropical Pacific to be [(higher)(lower)] than during neutral conditions. [ ]higher [ ]lower 13.In response to changes in surface currents, sea surface heights in the eastern tropical Pacific are higher than during neutral conditions. At the same time, the arrival of the warmer water in the east causes the surface warm-water layer to thicken. Evidence of this is the [(shallower) (deeper)] depth of the thermocline to the east compared with neutral conditions. [ ]shallower [ ]deeper Tropical Pacific During La Niña 14.Figure 3 shows atmospheric and oceanic conditions during La Niña. At times the tropical Pacific experiences trade winds stronger than neutral conditions with SST lower than usual in the eastern tropical Pacific and higher than usual in the western tropical Pacific. Because stronger trade winds produce stronger surface currents during La Niña, the warm water is pushed westward and colder water wells up to cause below-average SST in the eastern tropical Pacific. It also follows that SST in the western tropical Pacific must be [(higher)(lower)] than during a typical El Niño episode. [ ]higher [ ]lower 15.Changes in surface air pressure, areas of large-scale convection, and upper air flow patterns as shown in Figures 2 and 3 alter the planetary wind circulation and affect the weather elsewhere in the world. Figure 4 shows some weather patterns that have been statistically associated with El Niño conditions. This figure shows that during our Northern Hemisphere winter when El Niño is taking place, the southeastern states are usually [(drier and warmer) (wetter and cooler)] than normal. Figure 5 shows some weather patterns linked to La Niña conditions. [ ]drier and warmer [ ]wetter and cooler 16.The reporting of TAO/TRITON surface data for November 2014 is presented in Figure 7. The upper panel of Figure 7 depicts the mean tropical Pacific SST and wind conditions for that month. The SST are shaded with isotherms drawn at one-half Celsius degree intervals. Wind directions are shown by arrows originating at the buoy site with the length of the arrow depicting the relative wind speed. The shading and isotherms indicate that the warmest waters across the tropical Pacific are located near [(160° E) (180°)(140° W)] longitude. [Note, the Pacific east of 180° longitude (the International Dateline) has W(est) numbered longitudes while the Pacific west of 180° has E(ast) numbers.] [ ]160° E [ ]180° [ ]140° W 17.Across the tropical Pacific, winds were generally from [(west to east)(east to west)] and stronger in the eastern half of the region. [ ]west to east [ ]east to west 18.The lower panel of Figure 7 displays Anomalies, that is, departures from the long-term average. Positive temperature anomaly isotherms are drawn as thin solid lines and negative anomaly isotherms (though not drawn) are presented as dashed lines. The anomaly interval between lines is also one-half degree Celsius. The bold solid line (also not drawn) denotes the 0degree departure (i.e. average). The broad pattern of SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific region along the equator, in general, shows values that were:[(negative everywhere across the entire equatorial Pacific) (positive everywhere across the entire equatorial Pacific) (negative in all but the southeast area)(positive in all but the southeast area)]. [ ]negative everywhere across the entire equatorial Pacific [ ]positive everywhere across the entire equatorial Pacific [ ]negative in all but the southeast area [ ]positive in all but the southeast area 19.The magnitudes in the broad area of the most positive SST anomalies over the region were generally between [(0.5 and 1.0)(1.0 and 1.5)(1.5 and 2.0)] Celsius degrees. [ ]0.5 and 1.0 [ ]1.0 and 1.5 [ ]1.5 and 2.0 20.The anomalous winds were generally [(all strongly from the east)(light and variable) (all strongly from the west)] over the tropical Pacific. [ ]all strongly from the east [ ]light and variable [ ]all strongly from the west 21.The top view (November 1997 Means) is the average sea surface temperatures and surface winds for the month of November 1997. The sea surface temperatures (SST) across the region ranged from about 26 °C as the "coolest" in the southeast corner to about 30 °C as the "warmest" just south of the Equator, west of center. These highest SST were located at about [(170° W)(120° W)] longitude in the tropical Pacific. [ ]170° W [ ]120° W 22.The wind directions in the eastern Pacific were generally from the southeast. In the western Pacific, along the Equator (from about 140° E to 150° W), winds were generally light with most blowing from the west. Compare these observed winds and SST with the depiction of the Figure 2 schematic for an El Niño where surface winds are the horizontal arrows and the SST are color coded. The observations and the schematic model generally [(were)(were not)] consistent. (For larger views of these schematics, see http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/nino_normal.html ().) [ ]were [ ]were not The bottom view of Figure 8 (November 1997 Anomalies) is a depiction of SST and wind anomalies, departures of the observed values shown in the top view from the long-term average. (Recall: Positive temperature anomalies are solid lines in intervals of one-half degree Celsius. A heavy line labeled 0 shows where no temperature anomaly exists, i.e. conditions are average.) 23.The SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific were positive, with the greatest values being more than [(1.5)(4.5)(7.5)] C°. SST anomalies along the equator were virtually all positive or zero. The location and degree of the warm SST anomalies is what defines the El Niño situation. [ ]1.5 [ ]4.5 [ ]7.5 24.Now examine Figure 9. These are the tropical Pacific SST and wind conditions for November 1998, one year after Figure 8, showing that La Niña conditions had replaced El Niño. For November 1998, the sea-surface temperatures along the Equator in the eastern Pacific were near 22 °C, several degrees [(warmer)(cooler)] than those of the same area during the El Niño in November 1997. The winds across the entire Pacific area of the depiction were generally blowing from the east at that time. The warmest waters were found in the extreme western Pacific. [ ]warmer [ ]cooler 25.These observed winds and SST in November 1998 generally [(were)(were not)] consistent with the depiction of those of the Figure 3 schematic for a La Niña. [ ]were [ ]were not 26.The lower panel of November 1998 Anomalies shows the Pacific SST anomalies along the Equator being almost all negative, denoted by the dashed lines, with negative values dropping below [(-2)(-3)] C°. This relatively cool [compared to the Neutral ("Normal") Conditions] water is characteristic of La Niña. [ ]-2 [ ]-3 27.Compare Figure 7 with Figures 1, 2, and 3 as well as with Figures 8 and 9. That comparison shows that Figure 7's SST means and anomalies indicated [(weak La Niña) (neutral)(weak El Niño)] conditions existed in November 2014. This was confirmed by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) ENSO description of weak warm anomalies that had covered most of the equatorial Pacific. The CPC's forecast indicated a 65% chance that these same conditions would continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter and last into spring 2015. [ ]weak La Niña [ ]neutral [ ]weak El Niño